hi
here is the strategy we use to prevent the swarming from happen, as explained we have no wish to breed away the instinct to swarm but we do not want them to swarm uncontrollably. In a perfect world with no Varroa and plenty of good behouses (hollow trees) we wouldnt mind that a few swarms went away but this is not how the situation is today.
Our main strategy to fight off Varroa is the cut-out of drone broods, which I will cover another time. However, the drone comb is a three way comb (see images below) with no wax sheets (left hand image) which the bees uses to build natural sized drone cells, but it can also be used as a tool to "read the hives". During the drone brood season, in our area that is maj-june, we ensure we have drone brood in three stages in the comb (covered cells, open cells and newly laid eggs) by removing 1/3 every week. A quick look on the comb will consequently tell us the status of the colony; if it looks like the image with plenty of brood including newly laid eggs then we know the hive is fully functional and no swarming or queen change is planned in near future. We know this since the bees need to reduce the queens weight before she can fly and swarm and this process takes about a week so if we see newly laid eggs then there is no need for any actions except ensure the bees have plenty of space for brrood and honey. This is two minutes job to open the hive, cutout the brood and check for eggs in the comb.
If we on the other hand don't see eggs we know they are up to something and we need to take a closer look on the rest of the combs to detemine if a swarm is due soon or if the queen is now infertile or missing. If there are plenty of covered worker broods but no eggs then most likely a swarm is due and then we probably will find several queen cells. In this case we carry out a queen split where we remove all of the combs with open cells but one with queen cells. If it is a super good colony then we might try to make several hives from the queen cells - usually ther are plenty of queen cells present.
We let the original hive keep most of the bees and all covered broods. Obviously the new hive(s) need to have enough workers to tend to the open brood as well as honey and pollen since they will be too few to forage. We ensure we fill up with workers so it covers the brood (this time of year we can usually take bees from any hive with no issues to avoid weaken the original hive too much).
Now we have created a strong forage hive (original hive) that can focus on producing honey since they now will have a brood less period and a new hive with the old queen. This situation is also an opportunity to treat against Varroa but, as said, that article will be for another day.
If there are few worker broods as well as no eggs then its probably time to switch the queen or she might be dead. If we find some good queen cells, we spare 2 max 3, and let them carry on and make the new queen, we prefer the bees to make the queens themselves as well as let them mate naturally.
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