Covid-19

[Repwoc]

American research published on March 17, by University of Massachusetts Amherst, calculated that the median incubation period for COVID-19 was just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.

Ok - I haven't seen that, so if the symptoms develop after 11 days then 110 infections 11 days ago correspond to ~2700 infections now and over 6450 on Tuesday.

 

[Angry_Mob]

 

[Stiffy]

That’s the most sobering representation I’ve seen, where is it from?
S

 

[Angry_Mob]

That’s the most sobering representation I’ve seen, where is it from?
S

I've seen it posted on multiple sites, even for the day prior but not sure who is the original source. I borrowed it from Twitter.

The other scary thing is that the UK must go in full lock down tomorrow to match Italys trajectory otherwise we will diverge further in 2 weeks.

 

[Murox]

I've seen it posted on multiple sites, even for the day prior but not sure who is the original source. I borrowed it from Twitter.

The other scary thing is that the UK must go in full lock down tomorrow to match Italys trajectory otherwise we will diverge further in 2 weeks.

To bloody late for lock down. The stupid selfish short sighted cohorts of campers, caravaners et al have descended bringing with them and spreading the virus very effectively.

There are are fewer facilities in the countryside, but they will expect to be served gas, petrol and food and use our more limited medical services.

 

[madasafish]

I've seen it posted on multiple sites, even for the day prior but not sure who is the original source. I borrowed it from Twitter.

The other scary thing is that the UK must go in full lock down tomorrow to match Italys trajectory otherwise we will diverge further in 2 weeks.

Too late . The damage is already done. The time for lockdown was two weeks ago..

Basically LONDON needs to be in FULL lockdown. It accounts for approx. half the UK cases.
All flights inwards /outwards stopped..
All road and rail traffic inwards and outwards stopped except for food and essential services.
ALL non food shops and pharmacies closed.
Control of people visiting food shops.. Limit numbers inside.
All vending machines closed.

And penalties for non compliance immediate and so severe as to make enforcement easier.
Like individual fines in £1000s and businesses not in compliance fined and directors jailed. Caught driving illegally in/out? Vehicle confiscated. And sold. Driver jailed.


Otherwise we will make Italy look like a sunday school picnic..

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

To bloody late for lock down. The stupid selfish short sighted cohorts of campers, caravaners et al have descended bringing with them and spreading the virus very effectively.

There are are fewer facilities in the countryside, but they will expect to be served gas, petrol and food and use our more limited medical services.

The buggers have turned up in their droves not that far away from me, the nearest town there only has small local shops and a wee coop; worse case scenario - it will totally swamp their cottage hospital then put immense strain on our one general hospital twenty odd miles away - already feeling the pinch before all this, and that's without all the morons who have upped sticks and moved down to their holiday homes in Pembrokeshire, also served by this hospital. Hopefully the County Council will at least pull the rug from the holiday home council tax relief and hammer them financially.

 

[madasafish]

If the forecasts are in any way accurate - and so far they have understated the cases - forecast deaths would be as follows:

Deaths to date 233
Infections to date: 5,000
Rate 4.6%

Forecast infections 2 weeks time: 150,000 Key Number
Forecast deaths at 4.6% 6,900
(these are virtually certain)

After that social distancing may start to work so I assume the infection curves flatten and instead of multipling the last week by 6 to get the number of infections, I use 4 for the next week 3 for the week after and then 2

so we get total infections of :
4 April 150,000
11 April 600,000
18 April 1,800,000
25 April 3,600,000

The death rate will rise as the sick will not be treated but using 3.6 M at 4.6% gives 165,560 deaths. (and 250,000 is easily achievable as it requires roughly 6.4M infections. Not far off early May)

To get that improvement means STRICT enforcement of social distancing in LONDON where half the cases are...

This is NOT a forecast saying it will happen but showing we are starting from a very high base and need effective action to act very quickly.

You may disbelieve the 150,000 cases 4th April..they may be lower, in which case the deaths wil be a lot lower.

These are purely mathematical based on history (which shows the calculations are too low..)

Is the political will there to stop it happening? Measures must be put in place In London NOW - or so the numbers say..

Every day delaying means a large increase in deaths..

 

[For want of a better word]

I read that China is now undergoing a secondary infection possbly from workers returning to China from Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries where China has been investing in infrastructure etc.

My epidemiology is a little shaky, can someone explain, and will this happen in the UK when all the 2nd homers and caravan campers go back to the city they ran away from once they feel safe??

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

To bloody late for lock down. The stupid selfish short sighted cohorts of campers, caravaners et al have descended bringing with them and spreading the virus very effectively.

Not to mention the convoy of camper van/caravanners who have spent the winter in Spain now making its way towards the French ferry ports. Report of them crossing the border into France Friday, they will be with us soon.

 

[Bee Bumble]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MR-m2vnpEmM

 

[Beefriendly]

Not to mention the convoy of camper van/caravanners who have spent the winter in Spain now making its way towards the French ferry ports. Report of them crossing the border into France Friday, they will be with us soon.

Lets hope they are sensible enough to self isolate for a week or so rather than pass Wuhan Flue onto any more victims.

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

Lets hope they are sensible enough to self isolate for a week or so rather than pass Wuhan Flue onto any more victims.

doubtful after seeing the behaviour of many out there.
It will just be a fresh wave of selfish panic buyers stocking up on pasta and shittickets, maybe they should just all be sequestered at Ramsgate or Manston and thrown a bit of food over the chainlink

 

[Anduril]

Not to mention the convoy of camper van/caravanners who have spent the winter in Spain now making its way towards the French ferry ports. Report of them crossing the border into France Friday, they will be with us soon.

At Heathrow anyone showing signs of the virus are quarantined in the Holiday Inn at Heathrow, now that it is under NHS control. The same should be happening at the ports.

 

[Goran]

At Heathrow anyone showing signs of the virus are quarantined in the Holiday Inn at Heathrow, now that it is under NHS control. The same should be happening at the ports.

The problem is that not few have no any visible symptoms. Only testing and/or self isolation ( proper one, not just to go for a pint and return home..) may help in such cases..

 

[xgeordie]

I've seen it posted on multiple sites, even for the day prior but not sure who is the original source. I borrowed it from Twitter.

The other scary thing is that the UK must go in full lock down tomorrow to match Italys trajectory otherwise we will diverge further in 2 weeks.

From the point where there is a significance change in behaviour to reduce the infection rate e.g. lockdown, we are still stuck on the current trajectory for about 18 days.

 

[Anduril]

The problem is that not few have no any visible symptoms. Only testing and/or self isolation ( proper one, not just to go for a pint and return home..) may help in such cases..

The best way would be to quarantine them 2 weeks prior to the flight and then 2 weeks when they arrive at their destination. Can't see that happening just yet.

 

[Goran]

The best way would be to quarantine them 2 weeks prior to the flight and then 2 weeks when they arrive at their destination. Can't see that happening just yet.

That is main problem which makes your situation harder.. Our is problem that people don't obey self isolation even are in risk groups.. we have now around 250 infected and one deceased.. of course number of infected rise due to what we do ( or don't)..
One misfortune doesn't come alone.. we had earthquake in our capital this morning.. Two crises which are opposite.. to stay in or to stay out..

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

At Heathrow anyone showing signs of the virus are quarantined

Many are asymptomatic, or the virus hasn't gestated yet.
Just glad I'm not on the PCP any more - so are they probably, I'd just herd the lot into a compond and let them sweat it out

 

[Stiffy]

Was talking to a neighbour (at distance) who has two very young kiddies earlier today. He told me he is kitting our a local cottage hospital ready for the influx of patients. He was moaning about shoppers and others not keeping distance. As he moaned his mother and sister in law arrived for a Mother’s Day lunch! Can you believe the stupidity of some people?
S