If the forecasts are in any way accurate - and so far they have understated the cases - forecast deaths would be as follows:
Deaths to date 233
Infections to date: 5,000
Rate 4.6%
Forecast infections 2 weeks time: 150,000 Key Number
Forecast deaths at 4.6% 6,900
(these are virtually certain)
After that social distancing may start to work so I assume the infection curves flatten and instead of multipling the last week by 6 to get the number of infections, I use 4 for the next week 3 for the week after and then 2
so we get total infections of :
4 April 150,000
11 April 600,000
18 April 1,800,000
25 April 3,600,000
The death rate will rise as the sick will not be treated but using 3.6 M at 4.6% gives 165,560 deaths. (and 250,000 is easily achievable as it requires roughly 6.4M infections. Not far off early May)
To get that improvement means STRICT enforcement of social distancing in LONDON where half the cases are...
This is NOT a forecast saying it will happen but showing we are starting from a very high base and need effective action to act very quickly.
You may disbelieve the 150,000 cases 4th April..they may be lower, in which case the deaths wil be a lot lower.
These are purely mathematical based on history (which shows the calculations are too low..)
Is the political will there to stop it happening? Measures must be put in place In London NOW - or so the numbers say..
Every day delaying means a large increase in deaths..
