Covid-19

[Repwoc]

Frankly, London is going to be VERY seriously hit.

My son Francis lives and works in central London. He contracted Covid-19 presumably a few weeks ago and exhibited classic symptoms at the end of last week. Several people at his workplace called in sick on the same day he did. Several of his friends are also similarly affected. I don't think many of these cases are included in the official stats, because many haven't been ill enough to require hospital treatment and so haven't been tested.

Francis is now recovering. He no longer has fever, headache or pain in his chest, but is very tired, sleeping 12-14 hours average for the last three nights. As Millet said, it's brutal - and Francis is only 25 years old so I'm going to avoid it if possible by taking every precaution I can.

 

[Goran]

In Italy they said at the current rate death rate is 8-9%, a lot more than claimed 1%. I watched the column of 60 military trucks in Bergamo driving away coffins of unfortunate deceased persons, cause local crematorium has no capacity for so many.. Tragedy, how is said each one had name and life, they are not numbers..
Also to mention.. when is not enough respirators.. younger and fitter will get it, older will be left without it.. Not all on respirators are over 65, there are also not few persons below 50 years with respirators.. So it is cruel fact, when doctor must choose which to try to save is rule like on battlefield..

 

[Bee Bumble]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusMemes/comments/fetkd3/gollem_and_his_toilet_roll/

 

[For want of a better word]

My son Francis lives and works in central London. He contracted Covid-19 presumably a few weeks ago and exhibited classic symptoms at the end of last week. Several people at his workplace called in sick on the same day he did. Several of his friends are also similarly affected. I don't think many of these cases are included in the official stats, because many haven't been ill enough to require hospital treatment and so haven't been tested.

Francis is now recovering. He no longer has fever, headache or pain in his chest, but is very tired, sleeping 12-14 hours average for the last three nights. As Millet said, it's brutal - and Francis is only 25 years old so I'm going to avoid it if possible by taking every precaution I can.

Trust the poor lad makes a full recovery.... how did he get a test for Covid-19?
My neighbor ( GP) says they can not get any antibody test kits as yet and there is also a low level seasonal flu doing the rounds .... which seems to be compounding the issue.

Feels like a mushroom like the rest of us...
being kept in the dark and fed on ********!

Chons da

 

[Repwoc]

He didn't get a test. I believe he described his symptoms to NHS 111 and they said it was most likely covid-19.

 

[Beefriendly]

T

Feels like a mushroom like the rest of us...
being kept in the dark and fed on ********!

Toadstools....this is an unprecedented situation and seems to me the present government is doing whatever it takes to stop the spread, keep more people alive and keep people in work (or at least paid) or a roof over their heads.
We are all in unknown territory.
Anyone wishing to score political comments or points should rightly be despised.
Knowing the British resilience to these crises we shall soon be back bickering about Brexit/Climate Change etc...... at a correct social distance of course

 

[madasafish]

I produced a forecast a week ago:


"I did some numerical analysis assuming transmission cases increase as at present:

End of week forecast total infected.. this week 696
next week 4,200
Next +1 week 25,000

And assuming nothing changes - which it will not unless quarantine of London starts -
by mid May we will see 5.5million +/- 1 million..
"

https://clubjazz.org/forum/index.php?topic=11908.15



We should be social distancing now...

Well the forecast end of this week was 4,200 infections.
We are currently at 3,983 so we are going to overrun the forecast tomorrow.
Next week was forecast at 25,000 - so that looks fairly certain
And the following week 150,000.
The UK's social isolation policy has come too late - in theory - to reduce that 150,000 total.But if stringently obeyed , it might start making a dent (incubation periods are 5-14 days for symptoms to appear after infection)

Meanwhile Italy with 627 deaths today has managed to exceed China's worst day. Study of user mobile phones in the worst affected area show voluntary social isolation is not working with 40% of those surveyed breaking the rules... Total infected is around 41,000. Hospitals are overrun.

If the UK does reach 150,000 in early April as the forecast suggest, we could be looking at daily death figures of current 35 ish x 150,000 /4,000 or around 1,300 a day..

That is a purely arithmetical calculation based on current death rates. No allowance is made for the total collapse of NHS Covid 19 treatments which would follow such huge numbers of patients... Or the improvements brought about by isolation..


This is a numbers game.. and so far the formula is pretty much working...

We personally will be taking steps to ensure we isolate totally from the poulation - apart from neighbours who I have advised to do the same if we see any total infections over 50,000 . And if we do, martial law is likely in my view..And rioting in London .

 

[madasafish]

London is showing all the signs of an accelerating contagion.

Cases in top worst Boroughs in the UK based on cases per 100,000 population - (Sky News)

Westminster
11th March 6
20th March 99
% increase per day..183%

Kensington & Chelsea.
11th March 15
20th March 66
% increase per day..49%

Southwark
11th March 9
20th March 110
% increase per day..136%

Sources:
11th March https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england
20th March https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

The above should be locked down NOW and ALL movement stopped if the epidemic is going to be stopped..

Edit : note the % gains shown by day are NOT compound but % changes from the original numbers..

 

[For want of a better word]

Toadstools....this is an unprecedented situation and seems to me the present government is doing whatever it takes to stop the spread, keep more people alive and keep people in work (or at least paid) or a roof over their heads.
We are all in unknown territory.
Anyone wishing to score political comments or points should rightly be despised.
Knowing the British resilience to these crises we shall soon be back bickering about Brexit/Climate Change etc...... at a correct social distance of course

I think that this pandemic transcends politics... I do not mind if the politicians say honestly that they do not know the answers... if anyone should be despised it is the greedy hoarders!!

I just hope that the second home owners fleeing London to second home citys ( Salcombe... Newquay etc) bring enough bog rolls with them to last for their 12 weeks of "distancing"?
Good luck to them!

Chons da

 

[user 6228]

Local pub is full tonight

 

[Goran]

Local pub is full tonight

https://giphy.com/gifs/this-is-fine-wJPou1dis1l2OENxGZ

 

[Angry_Mob]

Already had it Nov/Dec last year and it is brutal.

Unless you were in Wuhan its highly unlikely that what you had was Covid-19.

Each government has taken different strategies to avoid panic from real figures, ours is severely limiting testing = a higher mortality/infection rate, the Germans aren't recording deaths with other underlying health problems as covid-19 death = lower mortality/infection rate.
Interesting times,.

I haven't heard any reports that Germany was massaging the death figures, I know they have been very pro-active in testing and thus can isolate and trace much more effectively than other countries.

Local pub is full tonight

People who flout the rules should be put to the back of the line for treatment if they require it.



Heres a video of a lady who doesn't appear to be that old in ICU; warning to smokers as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFL...lhXfpSl7p8Wmq0nX4qf8VR_P7KyRFRPgLBwqPvWkM9hpE

 

[Beefriendly]

Local pub is full tonight

That is the problem....or was.

 

[Erichalfbee]

Well, my sister in law, a nurse, has just tested positive. Been sick for two days.

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

Local pub is full tonight

That is the problem....or was.

Most landlords around here having a last hooray, substantially reducing the price of a pint to empty the started casks as it's going down the drain anyway and closing at midnight.
I relented to pressure from the other trustees and took the middle road and told the steward to shut up by tea time.
all the chatter I heard was plans to meet at peoples patio pubs or homes for card schools

 

[Ian123]

Wishing her the best and a speedy recovery. My dads care home shut the doors, we new it was going to happen at some point but a few hours notice would have meant a brief visit, I saw him Monday but... To top it off my mum went into a hospice on Thursday lunchtime hopefully for a bit of respite. All in it’s not been the best of weeks.

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

Well, my sister in law, a nurse, has just tested positive. Been sick for two days.

My mam is on her fifth day of isolation, been really ill the last few days, sickness, fever, shivers and fatigue, she was feeling a bit better lunchtime today though, was rather amused as the first time I phoned there was no answer (in the shower) when she finally picked up the phone maybe 'you're still alive then' wasn't the best salutation

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

Wishing her the best and a speedy recovery. My dads care home shut the doors, we new it was going to happen at some point but a few hours notice would have meant a brief visit, I saw him Monday but... To top it off my mum went into a hospice on Thursday lunchtime hopefully for a bit of respite. All in it’s not been the best of weeks.

I'm really sorry for your woes.
I can understand the rationale for locking down care homes but also feel for the residents, some of whom can be easily confused suddenly losing touch with loved ones.

 

[Erichalfbee]

Thank you Ian
And JBM the sick people reporting diaries in Twitter ( I know not the best source) are saying days 4/5 are the worst with severe fatigue and then it picks up so hopefully your mum is over the worst.

 

[SDM]

Thank you Ian
And JBM the sick people reporting diaries in Twitter ( I know not the best source) are saying days 4/5 are the worst with severe fatigue and then it picks up so hopefully your mum is over the worst.

That sounds more like flu, days 8/9 are typically where covid-19 goes downhill.