Covid-19

[Stiffy]

Welcome to Cornwall (not)

Welcome to Cornwall (not)

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

Welcome to Cornwall (not)

An unfortunate truth though, with us it's reared it's head In the North and the isle of the mad - large migrations of second home owners deciding to isolate themselves quite literally then expecting to be registered at the GP practice near to their hideout, concerns as to added strain on already overstretched rural practices and health boards. Betsy Cadwalladr already voicing grave concerns

 

[E&MBees]

I have relatives living in the South Hams, Devon. The influx of second homeowners, particularly from London has caused the number of cases there to increase rapidly after someone with the illness went to the village pub.

 

[B+.]

I don't think anyone would believe that people are spreading this thing maliciously. Stigmatizing anyone is not helpful

 

[For want of a better word]

I don't think anyone would believe that people are spreading this thing maliciously. Stigmatizing anyone is not helpful

Thoughtlessly and very selfishly more a probability

 

[Stiffy]

I don't think anyone would believe that people are spreading this thing maliciously. Stigmatizing anyone is not helpful

I don’t they are either but most are coming to a county that has a high level of deprivation .Why anyone at this time would wish to come to an area with some of the highest deprivation and a single (struggling) hospital is beyond me!
I think it’s similar to panic buying...... people are scared and not thinking logically.
S

 

[Goran]

I don't think anyone would believe that people are spreading this thing maliciously. Stigmatizing anyone is not helpful

Oh they do.. At least at my place do not obey self isolation ( those who returned from Italy, Austria, etc.. or were in contact with infected ones)..
One truck driver who returned from Italy was ordered to go in self isolation. He instead went to local pub, they knowing him kick out and told him to go home.. Of course.. he went into another pub, and again people know him and tell him to go home - he refused.. they called police. Police came, I didn't hear how gentle they were with him..
No brain - no pain.. we are one really disgusting species..

 

[Curly green finger's]

I went to Ludlow this morning and there was a cafe open with people sat outside.. I was wondering why they were not closed.

 

[B+.]

Oh they do.. At least at my place do not obey self isolation ( those who returned from Italy, Austria, etc.. or were in contact with infected ones)..
One truck driver who returned from Italy was ordered to go in self isolation. He instead went to local pub, they knowing him kick out and told him to go home.. Of course.. he went into another pub, and again people know him and tell him to go home - he refused.. they called police. Police came, I didn't hear how gentle they were with him..
No brain - no pain.. we are one really disgusting species..

Perhaps it's a mistake to attribute rational thought to some people.

 

[madasafish]

Tonight's total infections : 5,018 up 1,035 or 26%

Model (5/3/2020) said: 4,200 (+19%)


The trend appears to be accelerating upwards.. or it could be more testing resulting in more confirmed cases..

 

[The Poot in Somerset]

Yes. That's the model I was referring to. The 1% came from Wuhan but I understand that Italy is currently 5%. It's very scary.

I went to collect a prescription from my doctors for epipens today. They said the practice is effectively closed (the doctors are triaging over the phone - you only get into the building if they invite you in for an appointment - this is what the Government has told doctors to do apparently).

Got to look on the bright side - it gets you past the Rottweiler receptionist

 

[madasafish]

Got to look on the bright side - it gets you past the Rottweiler receptionist

The cleaner in our local doctor's practise was diagnosed positive yesterday. Closed and deep cleaned.. Town's two practises in one building. ..20,000 inhabitants....

Even more social isolation required.. she could have infected hundreds before diagnosis..

I avoid doctor's practises and hospitals on principle as far as posible (People die after visiting them)

 

[Erichalfbee]

Got to look on the bright side - it gets you past the Rottweiler receptionist

Triaging over phone here in Wales too
When you get to the surgery it’s entry via intercom then they open the door for you.

 

[Ian123]

Triaging over phone here in Wales too
When you get to the surgery it’s entry via intercom then they open the door for you.

From an interview with an Italian politician I heard I guess they are trying to protect these front line staff as very large numbers of them go down with it, causing further issues for the rest of us.

 

[B+.]

I avoid doctor's practises and hospitals on principle as far as posible (People die after visiting them)

Very wise!
My wife used to be a drug rep for GSK (back in the days when doctors saw reps for the freebies they could get). She used to come down with everything going....it was all that sitting around in doctors waiting rooms. When she left pharma, she retrained as a teacher....now she just gets everything going from the kids she teaches. Some people never learn! ;-)

 

[madasafish]

London is showing all the signs of an accelerating contagion.

Cases in top worst Boroughs in the UK based on cases per 100,000 population - (Sky News)

Westminster
11th March 6
20th March 99
% increase per day..183%

Kensington & Chelsea.
11th March 15
20th March 66
% increase per day..49%

Southwark
11th March 9
20th March 110
% increase per day..136%

Quick update :
For one day only..

Westminster
11th March 6
20th March 99
21st March 110 +11% on prior day


Kensington & Chelsea.
11th March 15
20th March 66
21st March 75 +14% on prior day


Southwark
11th March 9
20th March 110
21st March 134 +22% on prior day

I now know why I never wanted to live in London

 

[Repwoc]

Quick update :
For one day only..

Westminster
11th March 6
20th March 99
21st March 110 +11% on prior day


Kensington & Chelsea.
11th March 15
20th March 66
21st March 75 +14% on prior day


Southwark
11th March 9
20th March 110
21st March 134 +22% on prior day

I now know why I never wanted to live in London

And that's just the cases they know about. Could be just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[Repwoc]

The confirmed cases stats are a snapshot of the number of infections ~ 2 weeks ago, assuming 14 days from infection to symptoms. So looking at eg Westminster:

11th March, 6 cases
21st March, 110 cases

That's a compound rate of increase of 33.76% per day. But the 110 cases recorded on 21st March were infected on or before 7th March. Extrapolating from 110 infections on 7th March at a growth rate of 33.76% per day predicts over 6450 infected people today.

Keep safe everyone. Assume everyone you happen to meet is infected and give them a wide berth.

 

[Beersmith]

assuming 14 days from infection to symptoms.

I do not think this assumption is in line with current research.

Chinese scientists have published results based on their own cases where the incubation period could, in rare cases, be as long as 14 days, but the median period was 5 days. That is half of all people on becoming infected went on to show symptoms in five days or fewer.

How would your calculations look based on a median incubation period of 5 days?

 

[Beersmith]

American research published on March 17, by University of Massachusetts Amherst, calculated that the median incubation period for COVID-19 was just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.