Here's my tuppenies-worth....
I will end the war in 24 hrs!
After Trump began his pre-negotiation meetings it appears he quickly realised the situation is more complex than he assumed. Putin likely cannot end the war, as his economy now depends on it for anything that looks like growth, albeit from burning through Russia's sovereign wealth fund. Putin isn't keen on the idea of hundreds of thousands of brutalised russian troops heading home, and Russia's Z patriots want total victory at all costs.
In addition, if a ceasefire is achieved Ukraine will end martial law and the restrictions on men leaving Ukraine. Which means a mass-exodus, as Ukrainians know from experience Russia will definitely break that ceasefire. So, Ukraine categorically needs western troops to defend it, and thise troops partly rely on US logistics and technology, which Trump doesn't want to give..
Scapegoating
It's been said for some time that Trump is keen on receiving a Nobel peace prize. He's talked a lot about quickly bringing peace to Ukraine. Now he realises that's not possible.
I believe the ritual humiliation of Zelensky in front of the cameras last week, was to prepare a way out for Trump, to say Zalensky wasn't reasonable, it's his fault there's no peace, it's all on him. So, it's not my fault.
Last weekend's western alliance summit in London
This is an attempt by Starmer to create a realistic peace agreement, to put to Trump, involving western troops providing the needed security guarantee. Trump has to be involved because of our militarys reliance on US logistics and technology.
Trump will not be keen on this as it puts ownership back on him.
Pax Americana
I've often thanked Americans for our NHS, social security and education system.
Since George Bush 2 the US has been telling Europe to get serious about defence. This is something I am sympathetic towards Trump about.
So long as Europe cannot defend itself without the USA we are politically limited and tied to the USA like a vassal continent.
The original post WW2 arrangement was to keep Russia out and the USA in. As we drift further away from WW2 the incentives for USA military subsidy has gone.
Why is Russia still in Ukraine after 3 yrs?
1. Biden was far too over cautious. He believed Putin's nuclear sabre rattling. Regan would have flooded Ukraine with old US equipment, which they have plenty of.
2. Awfully bad communication to the US public. The $120 billion the US has spent on Ukraine has overwhelmly been spent in the USA, replacing old equipment and upgrading the US's capabilities. Some of the vehicles sent to Ukraine were left over from the Vietnam war - a cash value was assigned to these - but all this was not explained to the American public, which has left a big opportunity for mischievous political opportunists. In the case of cluster munitions, the USA tax payer actually saved a large amount of money, by not having to pay for it's disposal.
3. A lack of European military capability
4. USA cares about China not Ukraine.
The 2 are strongly linked. More engaged Americans can see this, but most Americans simply aren't that engaged.
How can this war be ended?
I've heard it suggested that a sufficient number of European troops could in theory be moved into Ukraine, to defend it's border with Belarus. With the effect of freeing-up a significant numbers of Ukrainian troops and equipment to fight at the front.
European air defences could also be positioned in the west of Ukraine, or even in Poland and Romania to provide air defence, further freeing up Ukrainian military personnel and equipment.
Combined with the well documented fast deterioration of Russian forces, and the poor state of the Russian economy, this could be the hammer blow needed to put Ukraine into a strong position for any negotiation, while giving the Ukrainian public the confidence they need to stay in Ukraine during any ceasefire.