Grand solar minimum

jenkinsbrynmair · Jun 21, 2020

Beersmith said:
As opposed to many thousands of daily recorded temperatures across the globe

Globe! but the earth is flat!! otherwise how would spirit levels work?

Beersmith · Jun 21, 2020

jenkinsbrynmair said:
Globe! but the earth is flat!! otherwise how would spirit levels work?

That made me smile!

But seriously, I think the school curriculum has a huge gap concerning the history of science. A lot of modern science such as Maxwell's wave equations, special and general relativity, quantum theory, astrophysics etc involves highly advanced mathematics. You cannot teach this at GCSE level, and it certainly wasn't taught at that level when I was young. So I suspect many people simply don't know what scientists actually know.

Most of these modern theories have been tested and tested and tested again against mountains of empirical evidence and never been found to be flawed, albeit all prediction comes with some level of measuring error. The most recent supporting evidence for general relativity being the measurement of gravitational waves by the ligo detector. All the theories remain incomplete, but are overall astonishingly reliable and accurate.

But never having been taught any of this many people mistakenly underestimate scientific knowledge. This seems to leave them susceptible to believing any old garbage they read on the internet. I think this very sad.

Repwoc · Jun 21, 2020

Karol said:
-64.9°C according to NOAA. Feel free to Google it.

So that's not

Karol said:
the coldest ever recorded temperature

then.

Karol · Jun 22, 2020

Like I said, sugar lasts a long time.

And Beersmith, for what it's worth and if you are interested, have a look at the difference between IR spectroscopy and Ramman spectroscopy detection capabilities. You might then discover that nitrogen and oxygen are also 'greenhouse' gases but their influence is predominently in the upper atmosphere. We can go into why there's a ten fold difference in eUV radiation between solar maxima and minima but only a 0.1% difference in irradiance at surface level etc and the significance of what that means but I suspect that will turn every one else off. Might help explain why Antarctica has more ice now than 1980 and why the Greenland ice sheet is growing. Indirectly it might also explain why polar bear populations are thriving.

Thank you Repwoc for correcting my poor grammar. Coldest ever recorded temperature in Greenland not coldest recorded temperature ever on the planet.

Repwoc · Jun 22, 2020

Karol said:
Like I said, sugar lasts a long time.

And Beersmith, for what it's worth and if you are interested, have a look at the difference between IR spectroscopy and Ramman spectroscopy detection capabilities. You might then discover that nitrogen and oxygen are also 'greenhouse' gases but their influence is predominently in the upper atmosphere. We can go into why there's a ten fold difference in eUV radiation between solar maxima and minima but only a 0.1% difference in irradiance at surface level etc and the significance of what that means but I suspect that will turn every one else off. Might help explain why Antarctica has more ice now than 1980 and why the Greenland ice sheet is growing. Indirectly it might also explain why polar bear populations are thriving.

Thank you Repwoc for correcting my poor grammar. Coldest ever recorded temperature in Greenland not coldest recorded temperature ever on the planet.

What is your point Karol? And please provide references for your claims which are otherwise meaningless.

As a research chemist I used IR spectroscopy on a daily basis for analysis purposes. While Raman spectroscopy uses light of much smaller wavelength (higher frequency) than IR its principle is based on the same molecular processes, ie vibrational and rotational energy levels. Every molecule, without exception, exhibits vibrational and rotational energy changes, so don't be surprised that oxygen and nitrogen do too. So what?

This article in Scientific American seems to disagree with your claim that the Antarctic ice sheet is growing.

According to this article, written by qualified people who do this science every day, in 2018/19:

the Greenland ice sheet saw a net decline of 329bn tonnes in ice.

That seems to contradict your unfounded claim that the Greenland ice sheet is growing.

And there are many other articles and papers available, too many to list here, which corroborate with these findings.

Karol · Jun 22, 2020

Repwoc said:
What is your point Karol? And please provide references for your claims which are otherwise meaningless.

Just saying that there appear to be credible predictions that we may be entering a grand solar minimum with the possibility of harsher longer winters. Up to you whether you believe it or not and up to you whether you want to make any provisions for colder longer winters.

As a research chemist I used IR spectroscopy on a daily basis for analysis purposes. While Raman spectroscopy uses light of much smaller wavelength (higher frequency) than IR its principle is based on the same molecular processes, ie vibrational and rotational energy levels. Every molecule, without exception, exhibits vibrational and rotational energy changes, so don't be surprised that oxygen and nitrogen do too. So what?

So... I don't think CO2 levels will save us from a grand solar minimum.

This article in Scientific American seems to disagree with your claim that the Antarctic ice sheet is growing.

According to this article, written by qualified people who do this science every day, in 2018/19:

Wonderful paper. 329bn tonnes lost in 2019 which is still up on the long term average of 260bn tonnes but well down from 458bn tonnes in 2012. 2020 currently well down on 2019 and if trends continue will be below the long term average.

Exemplified in this chart which shows extent of Greenland surface melt currently well below the 1981 - 2010 median.

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/greenland-surface-melt-extent-interactive-chart/

That seems to contradict your unfounded claim that the Greenland ice sheet is growing.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145185/major-greenland-glacier-is-growing

And there are many other articles and papers available, too many to list here, which corroborate with these findings.

Try this:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ and select the Antarctic tab.

2020 was the year predicted for the start of the grand solar minimum. There are early indicators that the climate is cooling. Hence, Antarctic ice sheet is circa 500,000 sq km greater yesterday than the same day in 1980.

Anyway, 'my point' as you put it was not to start a debate on climate change. Rather just to bring it to people's attention that things might get colder so they have the option if they so choose to plan ahead in good time. And if that means more hives are spared starvation then I'll be delighted to have helped.