I think Derek that you are still missing my point.
Perhaps I can explain it another (hypothetical) way.
Colony A is exactly the same as colony B in every respect. Same number of bees in the cluster. Same excess of energy stores. Same environmental hive conditions, etc, etc.
The only difference is that colony B is afflicted with a condition that prevents the bees from generating the same amount of heat, e.g. paralysis of wing muscles in the thorax.
What will be the outcome in terms of survival chances?
Without understanding the ability of a cluster to generate heat it's impossible to know if colony loss is as a consequence of environmental stress or some other factor. In my simple way of thinking, healthy bees would consume more energy stores to survive. By contrast, sick bees would not consume their energy stores thereby leaving lots of food behind as they die.
Energy is not just the honey. its also about Energy rates i.e. power.
in your example the heat generating capacity is reduced. if that heat generating capacity falls below the critical point the colony dies.
G = original generating capicity
L = heating losses Watts
C = critical power level below which life ceases Watts
g= reduction in power due to paralysis Watts
i = reduction in losses due to insulation Watts
M= original survival margin Watts
M'= original survival margin with insulation Watts
by definition
total power and losses > C means survival
total power and losses < C meant death
before paralysis
G-L=C+M (not insulated)
G-L+i=C+M'(insulated)
after paralysis
G-L-g = C+M''(not insulated)
G-L-g+i =C+M'''(insulated)
The situation is
M>=0 which means original colony survives
M'' < 0 which means uninsulated colony dies with paralysis
therefore
if i > g then M''' >=0 therefore insulated colony survives with paralysis