I'm not sure we genuinely fully understand what triggers the swarming instinct in honey bees and how it plays out in terms of the behaviour of the colony. It's often taught that "if any of conditions X or Y or Z hold then the bees are likely to swarm and otherwise they won't, but is that absolutely true? And even in contexts when we think we do understand, perhaps there are circumstances that can mislead us.
For example, say you have a new laying queen with lots of space to use, but because of some odd random genetic roll of the dice she doesn't produce as much tarsal pheromone as "normal" queens: she's a freak and humans can't see it. But bees can perceive it and behave accordingly.
James