Upcoming weather

[Roola]

hi folks, just thought i'd share where i think the weather will be heading in the next few weeks and the longer term.

In the shorter term over the next few weeks it is looking fairly average, the ensembles are pointing to a mix of your usual wintry story with some frosts possible but mainly Atlantic dominated, mild and rainy... winds predominantly coming from SW/W/NW.

[/IMG]

it may cool off a little next week but nothing to write home about.

Its the end of the month which currently has eyes peeled. There are early signs of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurring. This can disrupt the normally uniform rock solid polar vortex and displace colder air to lower latitudes. Models are hinting at this:

This could mean we see a colder beginning to Feb with a more wintry look... however its a fair way off and the usual decisive factor is the jet stream which this year has been quite active and the reason we have dragged in so many depressions from the Atlantic. If the Jet moves to a more Southerly trend then this could also facilitate colder inroads. I'll keep you posted, just thought i'd share where I think we are heading. Hoping we don't end up with another extended winter like last year.

Roola

 

[pargyle]

Looks like my broad bean plants are destined to stay in the greenhouse then !! At this rate I'll be harvesting my first crop before they get planted out !

 

[beeno]

Thanks for that Roola. Been meaning to put some fondant on two hives must get too it before the possibility of colder weather!

 

[psafloyd]

Looks like my broad bean plants are destined to stay in the greenhouse then !! At this rate I'll be harvesting my first crop before they get planted out !

Broad beans in the greenhouse? You should try planting them in October and they will then be much stronger come spring.

 

[MartinJG]

Roola,
Thanks for the interpretation; I would not know how to even start with the images shown!
So happy you will keep us up to date!
I wait with baited breath!

 

[pargyle]

Broad beans in the greenhouse? You should try planting them in October and they will then be much stronger come spring.

Yep ... did that last year ... did very well until those few sharp frosts knocked the tops off them after Christmas (completely caught me on the hop and it was too late for the fleece !). They came up again from the roots but were very late cropping and blackfly was a real PIA.

This year, for a variety of reasons, I couldn't get the seeds planted on the allotment and so I put them into pots in the greenhouse just before Xmas to start them off ... mild weather and plants like my greenhouse ... they've gone off like a train ... bit too quick for my liking but they will be fine once they get in the ground. Just the potential frosts that are a nuisance as they are already too tall for cloches !

 

[Erichalfbee]

I seem to remember February always tended to be cold and often snowy when I was a child.
Thanks for the info and pretty pictures

 

[Swarm]

Very often the sting in the tail.

 

[richardbees]

Thank you Roola,

....fair takes me back to my RAF days when we had the daily Met briefing - albeit just chalk on a blackboard!

I want at least one night's hard frost to kill off overwintering pests

 

[alldigging]

Looks like my broad bean plants are destined to stay in the greenhouse then !! At this rate I'll be harvesting my first crop before they get planted out !

Someone planted some a few months ago on his plot and they're flowering now.

 

[pargyle]

Someone planted some a few months ago on his plot and they're flowering now.

Not surprised ... trouble is one hard frost and he's back to square one ... been there last year ! If they are at that stage now I'd be building a frame over them and covering it with horticultural fleece .. pity to lose that impetus .. could have fresh broad beans by March if there's a few bees about to pollinate them ...

 

[MuswellMetro]

Thank you Roola,

....fair takes me back to my RAF days when we had the daily Met briefing - albeit just chalk on a blackboard!

I want at least one night's hard frost to kill off overwintering pests

takes me back to school visits to open days at the Met office in Dunstable, just a series of Nissan Huts and paper maps and slide rules, now thats before Bracknel and before Exeter and it makes me feel old, very old

 

[pargyle]

.....and it makes me feel old, very old

Never mind MM ... you're in good company here ... there's quite a few of us who are heading towards their sell by date !

I worry most because I remember things from 40 years ago better than those 40 minutes ... or sometimes even ... what was I saying ?

 

[VEG]

Never mind MM ... you're in good company here ... there's quite a few of us who are heading towards their sell by date !

Or the best before lol

 

[pargyle]

Or the best before lol

In my case probably well past the 'fit for consumption' stage ... at times !

 

[REDWOOD]

I have checked the met office 30 day forecast and a bit of a mixed bag really with no definite pattern of weather

 

[Roola]

I have checked the met office 30 day forecast and a bit of a mixed bag really with no definite pattern of weather

Problem is tat the models are having real trouble working out what is going on at the moment. The first graph I put up, each line is a different ensemble of variations modelled, you'll see they are very much in agreement over the next 3/4 days but then wildly scatter... Models have no idea! And as SSW is often 'sudden' that isn't factored into 30 day outlook either.

 

[MuswellMetro]

Problem is tat the models are having real trouble working out what is going on at the moment. The first graph I put up, each line is a different ensemble of variations modelled, you'll see they are very much in agreement over the next 3/4 days but then wildly scatter... Models have no idea! And as SSW is often 'sudden' that isn't factored into 30 day outlook either.

well some Solar physicists think they can predict the SSW, but then the Met O says they are random events

This SSW spike was predicted 30 days in advance and similar predictions made mid december are implying a warm end to Jan Uk and very cold in USA

 

[Erichalfbee]

This from the BBC

During the latter half of the 17th Century, the Sun went through an extremely quiet phase - a period called the Maunder Minimum.

Historical records reveal that sunspots virtually disappeared during this time.

Dr Green says: "There is a very strong hint that the Sun is acting in the same way now as it did in the run-up to the Maunder Minimum."

Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics, from the University of Reading, thinks there is a significant chance that the Sun could become increasingly quiet.

An analysis of ice-cores, which hold a long-term record of solar activity, suggests the decline in activity is the fastest that has been seen in 10,000 years.

"It's an unusually rapid decline," explains Prof Lockwood.

"We estimate that within about 40 years or so there is a 10% to 20% - nearer 20% - probability that we'll be back in Maunder Minimum conditions."

The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe.

Londoners enjoyed frost fairs on the Thames after it froze over, snow cover across the continent increased, the Baltic Sea iced over - the conditions were so harsh, some describe it as a mini-Ice Age.

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

This from the BBC

During the latter half of the 17th Century, the Sun went through an extremely quiet phase - a period called the Maunder Minimum.

Historical records reveal that sunspots virtually disappeared during this time.

Dr Green says: "There is a very strong hint that the Sun is acting in the same way now as it did in the run-up to the Maunder Minimum."

Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics, from the University of Reading, thinks there is a significant chance that the Sun could become increasingly quiet.

An analysis of ice-cores, which hold a long-term record of solar activity, suggests the decline in activity is the fastest that has been seen in 10,000 years.

"It's an unusually rapid decline," explains Prof Lockwood.

"We estimate that within about 40 years or so there is a 10% to 20% - nearer 20% - probability that we'll be back in Maunder Minimum conditions."

The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe.

Londoners enjoyed frost fairs on the Thames after it froze over, snow cover across the continent increased, the Baltic Sea iced over - the conditions were so harsh, some describe it as a mini-Ice Age.

That'll be that global warming thing then.
Just received my long range forecast for the next few months - hot!