Andy Duff
Field Bee
- Joined
- Sep 12, 2011
- Messages
- 643
- Reaction score
- 0
- Location
- Greater Manchester
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- none
work this one out
brain shredder
- Thread starter Andy Duff
- Start date
Help Support Beekeeping & Apiculture Forum:
Last edited:
A right brain teaser!
The answer is 25% or 50%, all supposing the correct answer is there in the first place!
But it may be 33% as there are actually only three options, so depends on whether you are choosing a numerical result or a letter as the answer.
If the correct answer is 25% you have a 50% chance of selecting that answer with a random choice of letter. If the correct answer is either 50% or 60%, you only have a 25% chance of selecting it at random.
If you have more than one random guess the odds will be different!
The answer is 25% or 50%, all supposing the correct answer is there in the first place!
But it may be 33% as there are actually only three options, so depends on whether you are choosing a numerical result or a letter as the answer.
If the correct answer is 25% you have a 50% chance of selecting that answer with a random choice of letter. If the correct answer is either 50% or 60%, you only have a 25% chance of selecting it at random.
If you have more than one random guess the odds will be different!
Another. Easier, this one.
If you toss a fair coin what is the chance of it coming down heads or tails?
a) 0%
b) 25%
c) 50%
d) 75%
e) 100%
If you toss a fair coin what is the chance of it coming down heads or tails?
a) 0%
b) 25%
c) 50%
d) 75%
e) 100%
OP
Andy Duff
Field Bee
- Joined
- Sep 12, 2011
- Messages
- 643
- Reaction score
- 0
- Location
- Greater Manchester
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- none
For want of a better word
Queen Bee
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2010
- Messages
- 12,502
- Reaction score
- 38
- Location
- South West
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- Miriads
simples 100%
not seen this one before, it's a case of RTFM or rather RTFQ
statistically it depends if the coin has a head on one side and a tail on the other, however the probability may be that the coin may have neither, either or both.. or indeed may fall in such a way that the coin lands on its edge.
nothing need be that simple
I think I understand 'RTFQ' which, if I am correct, is what a lot simply don't do properly.
OP
Andy Duff
Field Bee
- Joined
- Sep 12, 2011
- Messages
- 643
- Reaction score
- 0
- Location
- Greater Manchester
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- none
and RTFM=read a few books, take a bee-keeping course and get a mentor-ish.
Keep up the good work
asol
New Bee
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2012
- Messages
- 31
- Reaction score
- 0
- Location
- Cannock
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- 6
Regarding the first question.
There is no answer.
Assuming we accept the answer as A,B,C or D rather than the percentages then we have five possible conditions that could exist.
1) The correct answer appears 0 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 0%.
2) The correct answer appears 1 time in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 25%.
3) The correct answer appears 2 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 50%.
4) The correct answer appears 3 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 75%.
5) The correct answer appears 4 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 100%.
So all the single entries will create a chance of success of 25% but since none of the single entries are 25% they are not an answer.
Also the 25% double entry will create a chance of success of 50% so this is not an answer either.
Assuming we take the percentages as answers then we have three to choose from:- 25%, 50% and 60%. Since there are only three different answers and they are all different the chances of selecting one from 3 should be 33.333%. This doesn't exist, so there is no answer.
Off now to work to relax my brain!!
There is no answer.
Assuming we accept the answer as A,B,C or D rather than the percentages then we have five possible conditions that could exist.
1) The correct answer appears 0 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 0%.
2) The correct answer appears 1 time in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 25%.
3) The correct answer appears 2 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 50%.
4) The correct answer appears 3 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 75%.
5) The correct answer appears 4 times in A,B,C or D. If so the chances of selecting the correct answer is 100%.
So all the single entries will create a chance of success of 25% but since none of the single entries are 25% they are not an answer.
Also the 25% double entry will create a chance of success of 50% so this is not an answer either.
Assuming we take the percentages as answers then we have three to choose from:- 25%, 50% and 60%. Since there are only three different answers and they are all different the chances of selecting one from 3 should be 33.333%. This doesn't exist, so there is no answer.
Off now to work to relax my brain!!
I fink that is wot I sed at post #2, only I left your last answer at two significant figures, not five. RTFPR might be another acronym. 
alanf
Queen Bee
- Joined
- May 26, 2011
- Messages
- 2,185
- Reaction score
- 1
- Location
- Middx
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- 2
Or rather, in spreadsheet terms, it is a circular reference. That is, if the answer is '25%' then the chance of choosing it randomly is 50%. If the answer is '50%' then the chance of choosing it is '25%'. The random choice and available answers are separate events. In the terms of the question they are interdependant. The available values do not have to be contradictory, but they are in this case.
Hombre
Queen Bee
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2009
- Messages
- 2,814
- Reaction score
- 3
- Location
- West Midlands
- Hive Type
- 14x12
- Number of Hives
- Ten
Having read the question, you are biased and so any further attempt at answering the question won't be truly random, will it?
For want of a better word
Queen Bee
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2010
- Messages
- 12,502
- Reaction score
- 38
- Location
- South West
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- Miriads
But is P>5?
OP
Andy Duff
Field Bee
- Joined
- Sep 12, 2011
- Messages
- 643
- Reaction score
- 0
- Location
- Greater Manchester
- Hive Type
- National
- Number of Hives
- none
Oh now I get it, it's 0%-
1 if you can only see a b c or d and not the percentages the answer would be 25% i.e. a random choice of a letter. seeing the percentage numbers and the fact there are 2 25%s means it is no longer a random choice.
2 if it is a random choice the answer will be wrong (see above) which means a 0% chance of getting the answer correct.
3 0% is not an option given therefore it is impossible to answer a b c d to give the answer 0% is not there, which also means the answer is 0%.
Treat the answer as an English comprehention test, as the question was not defined as a multiple choice question with a correct mathematical answer.
Write or state that-
my chance of getting the correct answer is 0% because i was abducted and probed by aliens and I now have an irrational fear or numbers bigger than zero. English A* here I come
1 if you can only see a b c or d and not the percentages the answer would be 25% i.e. a random choice of a letter. seeing the percentage numbers and the fact there are 2 25%s means it is no longer a random choice.
2 if it is a random choice the answer will be wrong (see above) which means a 0% chance of getting the answer correct.
3 0% is not an option given therefore it is impossible to answer a b c d to give the answer 0% is not there, which also means the answer is 0%.
Treat the answer as an English comprehention test, as the question was not defined as a multiple choice question with a correct mathematical answer.
Write or state that-
my chance of getting the correct answer is 0% because i was abducted and probed by aliens and I now have an irrational fear or numbers bigger than zero. English A* here I come
1 if you can only see a b c or d and not the percentages the answer would be 25% i.e. a random choice of a letter. seeing the percentage numbers and the fact there are 2 25%s means it is no longer a random choice.
Not quite true. Answer could be selected in any number of ways for it to be random (picking a 'straw' is an example, each one marked with one of the letters).
Not quite true. Answer could be selected in any number of ways for it to be random (picking a 'straw' is an example, each one marked with one of the letters).
REDWOOD
Queen Bee
- Joined
- Oct 17, 2009
- Messages
- 8,381
- Reaction score
- 93
- Location
- swansea south wales
- Hive Type
- 14x12
- Number of Hives
- 10
The first question does not ask you to pick A to D as an answer just if you did pick one at random what odds would it be right
so 4 possibilities would = 1/4 but 2 are the same so that's 2/4
so the correct answer is 1/2 or 50%
so 4 possibilities would = 1/4 but 2 are the same so that's 2/4
so the correct answer is 1/2 or 50%
Skyhook
Queen Bee
- Joined
- May 19, 2010
- Messages
- 3,053
- Reaction score
- 0
- Location
- Dorset
- Hive Type
- 14x12
- Number of Hives
- 5
statistically it depends if the coin has a head on one side and a tail on the other, however the probability may be that the coin may have neither, either or both.. or indeed may fall in such a way that the coin lands on its edge.
nothing need be that simple
The correct answer is nearer to 99.99999999999999% (give or take)This thread might go a long way to demonstrating why polls need arranging so very carefully.
Most of the pols on here are not, shall we say, so well conceived. If you don't ask the right questions, the answers will be unreliable - and if the answers aer unreliable, only an idi ot would then attempt to make sweeping conclusions from the flawed data.
Simple yes or no polls are likely the most reliable, but the question can be biased, or just misleading, so they are not often perfect!
A suggested exercise, now, might be to look back at poll questions and choices - just to see how poor they can be.
Most of the pols on here are not, shall we say, so well conceived. If you don't ask the right questions, the answers will be unreliable - and if the answers aer unreliable, only an idi ot would then attempt to make sweeping conclusions from the flawed data.
Simple yes or no polls are likely the most reliable, but the question can be biased, or just misleading, so they are not often perfect!
A suggested exercise, now, might be to look back at poll questions and choices - just to see how poor they can be.
