As the title, first year that I have enough hives in poly to make a decent comparison and they don't seem to have wintered quite as well as bees in timber hives have.
I'm putting it down to being more active and bees aging faster. We only had one or two frosty mornings all winter, so not really comparable to large parts of the uk.
All poly hives are in a single broodbox with poly roof (no vents) and mesh floor.
My honest view is there isn't a lot of difference. I bought about 100 Paynes poly hives around 4 years ago. I have over 100 wooden hives so should be able to compare fairly well. I had plenty of experience of poly nuc boxes before this (some Paynes and some Maisemore). I also have around 200 poly mini mating nucs, mostly swi-bines with a few apideas.
For mini mating nucs I think most would agree that poly wins hands down, added to which poly mating nucs are so cheap. Although I know that Hivemaker and some others have their own bespoke wooden mini nucs and they prefer them.
For "proper" nucs i.e. 5 or 6 standard frames I also personally think poly is a clear winner in overwintering success. Also these units are very well designed, easily transportable, don't really need a hive stand and incorporate a feeder. I think that late splits or weak colonies winter better in them than a wooden nuc in my area.
When is comes to full sized poly hives I would agree with what others have said on this thread, they start weaker in poly but can catch up later. Murray is clear that his poly units do better and I don't doubt his honesty. However his crop is nearly all taken from the heather at the end of the season which isn't the situation for most beekeepers where much of the crop comes in during the spring or early summer.
If Mobus was correct in his theories regarding water in the winter cluster, (I suspect he was correct) then weaker colonies should do better in insulated hives and stronger clusters should do better in wooden hives given an ambient temperature typical in the UK. This seems to fit with my observations in my area (the Peak District). It could also explain why good beekeepers with huge clusters of bees i.e. Brother Adam, Manley and Mike Palmer have had such poor results with insulated hives. Maybe their hives were too strong to benefit from the insulation and instead were harmed by it?
Clearly there must be a sweet spot in the relationship between colony size, ambient temperature over winter and the best amount of insulation. If you change one parameter e.g the winter is really cold like in Finland then more insulation is likely to help.
Would I buy more full sized poly hives? Probably not given their current cost but I am happy to carry on using the ones I have.