Are you suggesting, "treat as soon as possible is February ?" and with what?
Clearly you did not read my post very carefully, or did not understand what was written.
Read the second and third paragraphs again, until you understand what I have written.
How many have consistently had less than an average 5% losses for several years in succession? I know Hivemaker is in that ballpark - and he does not treat for varroa in the winter months. That should tell you something.
shutting the stabld door before the horse bolts is the much simpler and better solution than leaving the door open and having to chase after the horse to recover it. Only the slow learners, after catching and re-stabling the horse, would then leave the door open yet again! I'm afraid if would appear that your horse bolted, in the case of two of your six hives. The mite levels were insufficiently reduced by your earlier treatments anx you are now left with a problem.
I said get it right in the first place and losses will be low. How do you think my bees have survived with such few losses? I have treated in the autumn, fed them full and left them tucked up for the worst of the winter months with no, or minimum, interference from me. It is not rocket science to work out why my losses are seemingly so much less than those of many others. Most certainly not down to trickling oxalic acid over them in the depths of winter, as I have not trickled oxalic in winter - getting on for ten years.
Some out there must be working very hard to lose as many colonies as they do. If oxalic trickling was so important - as it has been trumped up to be - why have my winter losses been so low? They should have been higher than the average, not lower.
Regarding the end of February reference, that was a typical time that I started to encourage some colonies to increase brooding and to heft for stores. I have, in the past, pulled a hive (in my garden) to pieces in mid Feb, looking for brood. A whole week with temps up around, and over, 20 Celsius. Winter only lasted about 7 weeks that year, as I clearly recall. Bees foraging heavily into late November, still brooding heavily into December (even taking in pollen on Christmas Eve) and only then settling down until the second week in Feb when they were foraging voraciously.
At the time, I thought it amazing bee-haviour, but now it is nothing special as the seasons are much less defined than in previous decades.
Your varroa will not increase until brooding recommences. Think about it - if there are 500 mites they will all be into cells during the first few days of increased brooding. They will be stuck there for a fortnight. If you have a problem, treating before they emerge and they double in number would be good.
If brooding starts and slows, due to the weather or too few bees, troubles can/will escalate; if when brooding starts it continues apace there will be more bees produced without varroa in the pupating cells, so the colony will expand faster than the varroa population. Those winter bees surviving into spring are most important, so that the first brood cycle is supported by them. Err, back to healthy bees going into
winter? Back to getting the varroa load down in the autumn. It is up to the beekeeper to take strong healthy colonies into winter, or watch out for the ailing colonies in spring and treat appropriately. I know which is the better option.