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Likelyhood is an interesting question here...I am not sure if it applies, but it does seem to.
I read on here that it's better to go for more likely options. Then there is Occam's Razor
 
Wordle 785 4/6* old
β¬›β¬›β¬›β¬›πŸŸ© 25 poss
β¬›πŸŸ¨πŸŸ¨β¬›πŸŸ© 3 poss (a bit lucky here?)
β¬›β¬›πŸŸ©πŸŸ©πŸŸ© 1 now
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wordle 785 4/6* new
β¬›πŸŸ¨πŸŸ¨β¬›πŸŸ¨ 55 poss
β¬›πŸŸ©πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ¨ 8 poss
πŸŸ¨πŸŸ©πŸŸ©β¬›β¬› 1 left
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Not much between them, as usual less possibles if old gets a hit at start
 
I read on here that it's better to go for more likely options. Then there is Occam's Razor
I'm pretty sure they are all equally likely*, unless you know it already came up.
[* assumes the list of possibles is known and used. Otherwise more known/likely words are more probably in the list of all Wordle answers since it uses a limited list of "normal" words, if that makes sense.
Since I only work with a list of the solutions to Wordle they are all equally likely unless they already have been used.]
 
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Wordle 786 4/6* old
β¬›β¬›β¬›πŸŸ¨β¬› 159 possible
πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ©β¬›β¬› 4 poss
πŸŸ©πŸŸ©πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ¨ only 1 now
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wordle 786 4/6* new
β¬›πŸŸ¨β¬›β¬›β¬› 68 possible
πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ¨ 2 possible
πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ©πŸŸ©πŸŸ© other one then
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Win to the new
 
Wordle 787 4/6* new
β¬›β¬›β¬›πŸŸ©β¬› 40
πŸŸ¨β¬›β¬›πŸŸ©β¬› 8
β¬›πŸŸ¨πŸŸ¨πŸŸ©πŸŸ¨ just 1 (bit of a significant choice)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wordle 787 4/6* old
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 651
β¬›β¬›β¬›πŸŸ©β¬›19
β¬›β¬›πŸŸ¨πŸŸ©πŸŸ¨ 2
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 knew which to choose, might have been 5.
New wins (even allowing that line 3 helped a lot).
 
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