This is from today's Cyprus Mail newspaper. It is not encouraging at all:-
Prepare to live in a desert
By Stefanos Evripidou
CLIMATE change is irreversible, warned a top scientist at the Cyprus Institute yesterday, adding that Cyprus had no choice but to adapt to hotter weather and reduced rainfall.
Director of the Energy, Environment and Water Research Centre at the Cyprus Institute, Professor Manfred Lange, said Cyprus had to start building houses and managing water to adapt to the hot and dry years expected to come.
“We have seen a 1.6 degrees Celsius increase in temperature here, which means Cyprus warms up faster than the rest of the world where the global mean increase is 0.8 degrees Celsius,” he said.
Added to that, rainfall has not stopped falling since the 1940s. Average rainfall between 1941 and 1970 was 533mm in Cyprus. During 1971-2000, this dropped to 463mm, showing a significant decrease.
Cyprus also has the biggest water problem in the EU, according to the Centre’s Water Stress Index, which calculates the ratio between water being used versus available water.
“Cyprus is the champion of water stress in Europe. It has the highest water needs than any other country in Europe,” said Lange.
It also has the highest percentage, 80 per cent, of groundwater reservoirs at risk of being depleted. “There is no water underground,” the professor said starkly.
The flow of water into the dams is declining between 24 and 58 per cent. Present storage is at its lowest level ever, standing at just 8.8 million cubic metres, or 3.2 per cent of full capacity (273.6 million cubic metres).
The Institute used global climate models to assess the likely future of the region, based on a “very conservative estimates” of greenhouse gas emissions in the future, which even take into account political measures like the Kyoto Protocol.
“So what we are showing is the lower estimates of what will happen, the minimum effect. We really should prepare for a higher temperature increase and lower rainfall,” he said.
Using 1961-1990 as a reference period, the group of scientists projected that average summer temperatures would increase by two degrees Celsius between 2021 and 2050, particularly in the Troodos region. Within the last 30 years of the 21st century, this will likely rise to a five degree increase.
Cyprus will feel an extra 25 days a year of extreme temperatures (over 35 degrees) in 2021-2050, increasing to 60 days in 2070-2100.
If you think the nights will bring respite to the summer heat, think again. Cyprus is expected to have an extra 45 tropical nights, where temperature rises above 20 degrees Celsius in the first projected period 2021-2050. This will be spread out in different parts of the island. By the end of the century, this will increase to 90 extra tropical nights, all over the island.
Rainfall between 2021 and 2050 will drop by 6-18 per cent. For 2070-2100, there’ll be a 20-35 per cent decrease, creating “almost desert like conditions”.
Winter will also become much drier, with rainfall dropping between 25 and 40 per cent by the end of the century. The eastern part of Cyprus will have 15 more days without rainfall while western Cyprus’ dry spells will increase by one month.
Asked whether the dismal projections were reversible, Lange replied: “I think it’s too late to talk about reversible. Cyprus is bound to a significant amount of climate change. The figures are showing a definite trend, and that’s using conservative scenarios.”
Though falling greenhouse gas emissions won’t reverse the trend, if emissions increase, the predictions could get worse, he noted.
“We should very definitely make an effort to reduce emissions but we also need to look at adaptation and how to deal with the changes,” said Lange.
Environment Commissioner Charalambos Theopemptou highlighted that if Cypriots wanted to maintain their quality of life, they would have to learn to adapt to the changing environment, particularly regarding water supply, tourism and agriculture.
“We also need to convince others to reduce emissions. How can we do this if we don’t take measures ourselves, serious measures which will hurt the economy,” said Thepemptou.
Lange gave an example of where to start: “Things have to change in the building sector, insulation, the way windows are built, simple things to reduce energy consumption and contribute to leading a life which is much better suited to the new climate.”
The director also called for a more centralised water management policy so measures could be taken quickly to avoid the declining reservoir levels we are seeing today.
“My impression is water management is too divergent, there are too many players with too many divergent views creating a non-coherent water policy on the island.”
Lange said Cyprus would have to depend on desalination in the long-run, but using renewable resources.
“Solar thermal energy should be developed aggressively,” he said
