Hi Geohorn,
So sorry that you have lost your bees particularly since you only had the one hive. It happened to me, because all the "experienced" beeks told me not to worry - "bees don't swarm this time of the year". So, I had stopped looking for swarm cells. Well, mine did on the 4th Sept 2011 and this will somewhat colour my assessment of your situation.
Thus, I do find myself agreeing with ChrisB.
1. Feeding - Swarming in May suggests to me that you may have overfed your colony. The advice often seems to be feed, feed, feed when you buy a nuc or a colony. I guess if you are thinking about splitting a colony you will do that in order to get the maximum amount of bees. But it can back-fire on you.
2. Swarm control - As a newbie myself, I find it extremely difficult to find an unmarked queen and easy to miss a queen cell. In September you state no brood and six frames of honey. (The opposite to that is no stores and lots of brood which you can easily remedy by feeding.) Alarm bells should have started to ring, because you are either Q- or you have a virgin in there according to the books! Saying that, it is not always true as we have had that situation in our apiary and low and behold there she is our marked queen having a brood break! But you cannot afford to take that chance in September and you should have tried a test frame which is not easy with one hive as you need some kind soul to give you one! If they had built a queen cell from it you could have bought a laying queen.
3. Cluster size - A small cluster size cannot move readily to where the stores are or indeed a larger cluster size will not move away from brood. Because of that I take no chances and put fondant rolled out to cover the whole area of the top bars, so that the bees have easy access to it wherever they choose to cluster thus avoiding isolation starvation.
Your summer bees could have been late in dying off as they did not have any brood to fetch and carry for and the mild weather, thereof the difference in bees between beginning of October and end of October. When my bees dwindled and died due to virgin not getting mated in 2011 they died in January too.
4. OA situation may only be because you chilled a small cluster since you have not seen any signs of nosema.
Don't beat yourself up about it though, there is not a beek out there which this has not happened to! Lots and lots of luck for the coming season.