Don't forget the vaping will remain active for 5 days or more so mites will stll drop.
My colony like yours was still dropping mites last vape (sixth one ) was on the 17th, I checked Monday another 170 odd on the board. Tomorrow will check mites again to see if more have dropped, I feel the numbers dropped has given them a good chance to raise healthy winter brood. After tomorrow I will decide whether or not to leave it another week or two and give another course of vapes.
The continual dropping numbers suggest to me that mites are being bought back.
My 3 other hives are all < 20 @ 48h (communicative).
So I was hoping to see < 100 @ 24h. I wanted to see a significant reduction.
If mites are being bought back its just 1 hive doing so. And its been happening for a long time, or multiple times.
When I saw the results of the 1st vape, I thought if the first set of treatments kills 95%, then I will still have an infested hive. I conservatively saw 8000 on the first 4 vapes, I only keep boards in for 48h, so the true number will be far greater. Based on 8000, that would leave 400 mites after treatment.
So it is safe to assume that when starting the 5th vape I have a lot more than 400 mites still in the hive. Many of the surviving mites will be in brood so the population will probably quadruple in a short time.
If you consider the initial population of mites (10000+?), how long they have had to reproduce since I started treatment (40 days) and the efficacy of the treatment (95% @ 20 DAT) , then I think it easily accounts for the number of mites still dropping.
I think there could have been a robbing event that got them infested, but do not think mites are still being bought back.
Unfortunately, this does not bode well for their prospect raising healthy winter brood, as it suggests the mites are still reproducing hence feeding on brood.
The one glimmer of hope I am clinging to, is the fact that the average life span of a mite in a hive undergoing OA treatment will be considerably shorter. I figure if the mites have short lives then they have less opportunity to acquire and spread viruses.