empirical evidence appear to suggest that natural mite drop is only a method of showing that your hive has varroa, but not that it doesn't
Let's start by saying your sentence above is basically rubbish - there are mites in your hive, whatever you think. Unless you live in one of the few areas where the mite has not yet reached, there are mites there. You can depend on that so a natural mite drop of zero means absolutely nothing for the very large majority of us. Natural mite drop is just one of several indicators, none of which are particularly accurate for low infestations and sometimes not for higher ones. You can depend on there being more mites there one month later, than one month ago. Simple fact. Double or worse is the usual expectation.
I observe all through the year. Mite drop, drone brood infestation, times of other treatments (and results from those treatments), and making sure the autumn thymol treatment is effective.
Deformed wing bees denotes a likely heavy infestation, but rarely would mine get to the stage of lots of them. There will always be the odd bee with deformed wings, even in the best managed hives, but because I am confident that early summer checks and treatments are enough to keep the mites in check, I don't worry if I observe just an isolated case, I just look harder and take note, check back on previous history and watch the hive more carefully. If I note a mite on a bee, I look more closely for others; two on one bee would be a wake-up call.
I would never rely on a single mite drop over 24 hours. That is just asking for trouble.
Generally the effective autumn thymol treatment will ensure the bees go into winter with a lowish infestation that is not going to be lethal or detrimental to the colony. I know there will be mites, but that does not bother me as long as they are at reasonable levels, but I consider that treatment is the most important of the year. If I were not sure that the thymol was as effective as expected, closer checks and observations would follow, but generally if the thymol is not agreeable with the weather, I might adjust it so that it is effective. Of course one needs to be aware that an overdose can seriously disrupt the colony or even kill it. By the same token, so will an ineffective treatment, so one needs to be careful and work at it to get it right.
That is why I don't use apiguard. Some of the others are likely good enough, but I prefer to continue using what I am used to.
Even with the best of checks a robbing session on a collapsing hive can change the status quo, so one never stops looking for any signs of possible increased infestation over the expected. I will getr caught out eventually, but that is life.
If one has a hundred colonies, the problem would become too complex to watch all the individual colonies and treat each as appropriate. That is when a 'treat everything as a precaution' arises. Two hive owners are hampered by a lack of comparative results, but with a few colonies there is no great problem of keeping an eye on the situation for most of the time.
Avoiding the need for winter oxalic is a choice. I don't get drops of several thousand at any treatment if I keep on top of it.
So no special secret. Recognition that treatment will be necessary in most cases at some time - and not necessarily in the depths of winter works for me.