Mixed reports...... could be multi factoral BUT most mention too many old bees and not enough young ones going into winter...with which I can partially concur. As nucs have nice young queens and with correct gentle stimulation will grow into autumn and thus be rich in young bees and then also looking relatively better..as some here are reporting...it all fits. The people I have been talking to are a mix of larger and medium scale beekeepers, also some smaller scale, inc treaters and treatment free, and those who use imported queens, local mixes, and Amm. All affected, many too proud to publicly admit it. It does seem to be mainly weather related from last summer.
Late summer is the most critical month for wintering...sets in place the size, health, and age of the population. Bees working hard late, and aging on flows like ivy, and plugging the nest at the same time, thus further restricting brood rearing, can all be in play here. Enhanced varroa loads..and seems to have been one of that type of years, will add to this. If its prematurely aged bees dropping off fast and early then the dying/dwindling still has a long way to go....March is the main month for losses up here. At end of Jan only around 10% of the actual winter related losses have taken place. Of course this has to exclude queenlessness and drone layers....they are set in place by autumn.
Our season up here effectively closed down around 10th August...so the usual late brood flush on the heather did not take place..so we expect quite a lot of smaller colonies that will take time to build in spring. We are OK up to now except in some groups where varroa took hold at a time we could not treat (honey flow). No chicken counting here until start of April at least...dwindlers can be petering out right into early May. Will be interesting to see what the populations are like come 'crossover day'.