According to BBKA survey recent winter losses have been
2007 30%
2008 19%
2009 18%
2010 14%
Good news that the losses appear to be falling, but explanations are lacking. On the one hand I would be wary of
taking these figures as absolute, they are a sample of BBKA members amounting to around 2% of the estimated hives, median number 2. On the other hand, the methodology has been repeated year to year so annual variation is likely to be more accurate.
To take the South East as a sample (just my home bias) the numbers look like:
2007-8 26.0
2008-9 18.7
2009-10 17.9
2010-11 14.0
The sort of explanation that could be put forward is improving practice or some sort of weather related factor. Practice is hard to quantify but we can look at weather. The survey was in response to anecdotally high losses, so we'll include 2006-7.
Take
weather station data for monthly average min and max (Heathrow) as fairly typical (chart below). It is striking that the lower losses are associated with an earlier and more severe onset of lower temperatures. Not on the Finnish scale, obviously. [edit] As Finman suggests, the higher temperature over the previous summer may also have something to do with it.
There is little obvious correlation with rainfall. If we take the 6 months rain total Oct-Mar each year:
2007-8 26.0% loss 217mm rain
2008-9 18.7% 317mm
2009-10 17.9% 464mm
2010-11 14.0% 262mm
[edit] the previous summer rainfall (Apr-Sep) might be a stronger link, but could need better definition of critical periods. The idea that dry summers are to blame does not stand up, the driest summer was followed by the lowest losses.
2007-8 26.0% loss 321mm rain
2008-9 18.7% 339mm
2009-10 17.9% 239mm
2010-11 14.0% 201mm
We probably don't have enough data to draw firm conclusions but it could well be that there is something about UK practice that is better suited to the colder winters which were more typical years ago. Recent unexpected mild winters have led to losses which have either reversed with the weather or prompted action to change. The net sales of various treatments or hive materials may make interesting reading.
What would also be interesting is to see the loss data for the larger honey farms. Not because I would expect them to be so much better or worse but because I would expect them to be more consistent in practice year to year. I suspect they take a more critical judgement on weaker colonies in autumn than the average backyard keeper. Simple logistics must mean that they are more constrained than those with a few hives who can always change timings or practice in reaction to the weather.
The chart shows monthly mean average min and max temperature in degrees C at Heathrow from Jan 2006 to Jun 2011
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt