Unable to find?

[Poly Hive]

I do find the search on here frustrating to say the least.

If you happen to know the thread where the statistical theory of 50/50 was mentioned with regard to swarming please post up a link? As in if a swarm came from swarmy parents the odds were they were a swarmy strain etc.

Thanks in advance.

PH

 

[Curley]

Hi PH
I think this might be the thread you meant and the specific post was 23 by Beersmith.

https://beekeepingforum.co.uk/showthread.php?t=45876&page=3

HTH

Cheers

D

 

[Monbees]

Hi PH
I think this might be the thread you meant and the specific post was 23 by Beersmith.

https://beekeepingforum.co.uk/showthread.php?t=45876&page=3

HTH

Cheers

D

That's interesting Curley; how did you find it? Like Poly Hive, l often come upon interesting posts which l am then unable to find again.

 

[Curley]

how did you find it? L.

I would like to say it was Beyes Theorem that was the hook but what I remembered was Beersmith's name - I don't know - something about about beer? It must be said the onsite search is not good nor easy to use. I tend to use Google and include beekeepingforum in the search

 

[Poly Hive]

That's the one, many thanks.

Yes I have turned google on to the site too but often to no avail.

It's a long long standing issue here.

PH

 

[its.only.money]

If you prefix a Google search with site:beekeepingforum.co.uk e.g.:
site:beekeepingforum.co.uk smoker
Google will return only results from that site.
(NB.It works for any site)

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

 

[Repwoc]

Great tip. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Beersmith]

I do find the search on here frustrating to say the least.

If you happen to know the thread where the statistical theory of 50/50 was mentioned with regard to swarming please post up a link? As in if a swarm came from swarmy parents the odds were they were a swarmy strain etc.

Thanks in advance.

PH

I think this was probably my post.

I must stress that I made no claim at all about the measured propensity to swarm in the genes of a swarm and I certainly would never do so. What I did was point out that there is a difference between a probability and a conditional probability. This is nothing specific to beekeeping. It is just a basic statistical issue and occurs in many contexts, and I tried to illustrate the point with a purely hypothetical example about good and bad drivers.

I did not discuss bees directly but the logic would run along the following lines.

1. Bees may vary in their propensity to swarm due to variation in their genes.

2. Offspring (swarms) are genetically related to their parent queen so will tend to have similar genetic characteristics.

3. In any given season colonies with a high propensity to swarm will produce more swarms than their proportion among the overall population.

4. A swarm acquired at random may therefore have a slightly increased chance of propensity to swarm itself.

It would require careful scientific study to verify and quantify these effects, but they might be the reason some beekeepers hold certain beliefs about swarms.

I'm not claiming my argument is correct. But I was prompted to post because I thought the issue warranted a more thoughtful discussion rather than the "this is true" / "no it isn't" tone in several posts.

 

[Poly Hive]

It was the statistical theory that caught my eye. Thanks.

PH

 

[Murox]

Shows, exhibitions etc

I just clicked the "calendar" button to see if there was a handy list of all the various up-and-coming shows exhibitions and so on for the coming year - well there wasn't . However I did find that the calendar only displays for 2015 !

 

[Beersmith]

It was the statistical theory that caught my eye. Thanks.

PH

I have had a life long fascination with the world of science and mathematics and it's history. Thomas Bayes is just one among many who have contributed to the advancement of these subjects. Aged about 13, I first came across Euclid's proof that there was no largest prime number and from that moment on I was hooked.

I will say no more as I could ramble on for hours about people like Euler, Fermat, Michelson and Morley, Einstein, Bohr, Feynman and dozens of others.

 

[Popparand]

I have had a life long fascination with the world of science and mathematics and it's history. Thomas Bayes is just one among many who have contributed to the advancement of these subjects. Aged about 13, I first came across Euclid's proof that there was no largest prime number and from that moment on I was hooked.

I will say no more as I could ramble on for hours about people like Euler, Fermat, Michelson and Morley, Einstein, Bohr, Feynman and dozens of others.

Thank you

 

[Poly Hive]

Thanks from me too. Sadly I am utterly blind with maths. I can work out arithmetic fine, I pissed of a class by getting 96% in arithmetic and the maths teacher knowing full well how bad I was at that insisted we do another arithmetic test as obviously something was wrong. I got 94....

But put letters in and equations and I am lost. I even tried an OU course to see if it had been the teaching but I gave up after three deliveries of work and I couldn't get past the first page of the first lot. *shrug*

Know your limitations. We can't all be good at everything. I wish I could find the one thing I might be good at. (that is not an open goal people...lol)

PH

 

[Beersmith]

Thanks from me too. Sadly I am utterly blind with maths. I can work out arithmetic fine, I pissed of a class by getting 96% in arithmetic and the maths teacher knowing full well how bad I was at that insisted we do another arithmetic test as obviously something was wrong. I got 94....

But put letters in and equations and I am lost. I even tried an OU course to see if it had been the teaching but I gave up after three deliveries of work and I couldn't get past the first page of the first lot. *shrug*

Know your limitations. We can't all be good at everything. I wish I could find the one thing I might be good at. (that is not an open goal people...lol)

PH

I think you are far too modest. If you are a confident and capable arithmetician I am sure you have all the skills you need to understand algebra and advanced mathematics. You have just not been exposed to the teaching method that works for you.

I remember some of my maths teachers and lecturers with great affection. One thing they shared was the ability to communicate ideas in numerous ways. If I or fellow students were ever struggling with a new concept they could explain the idea in numerous different ways. This more than anything meant that students "got it" before moving on to the next stage. Just lucky I guess.

 

[Poly Hive]

AAh sdly no I know I have a complete balnk with this one and am happy to accept it.

I have never had the need for it nor has it thankfully ever held me back. If you drill a 10000 ft section of 9" hole you need 10000 ft of 9" casing to line it plus hanger and float and shoe. Plus 10% for damage. I dont need to work out much more.

If I have 10 colonies at 3 supers per unit I need at least 30 supers. See, I got it!

PH

 

[Repwoc]

If I have 10 colonies at 3 supers per unit I need at least 30 supers. See, I got it!

Yes, you have - and you're doing the algebra in your head without thinking about it:

Number of supers needed = Number of colonies x 3

or, more briefly:

supers = colonies x 3

or even more briefly:

s = c x 3

where s = number of supers needed and c = number of colonies

 

[Poly Hive]

I am doing arithmetic.

Add the letters and its eh?

Anyway pouring rain again so into the cold conservatory and see if I can marry up the Trend router that arrived this morning with the table that arrived yesterday. I sincerely hope the router bookie is clearer than the table one.. it's baffling really.

PH