There are at least 3 unknowns here: what size is the colony ?; what stores do they have ?; and what volume is the cavity (i.e. how much rubbish was already in the bin when the swarm moved in ) ? To my mind it would be useful to know these, unless you're just going to take a gamble on the outcome.
But to find out, it will (presumably) be necessary to open the lid a little, and this of course might cause the combs to break away.
This is a tough call - if it were my problem, then I'd be inclined to have all the kit on hand to do a full cut out/comb transfer, just in case things should go pear-shaped, but if possible just take a peek to establish the status quo - even though the assessing of stores may only be guesswork - and then take whatever measures are appropriate based on that quick survey. If nothing else, some rolled-out fondant shoved under the lid, and some bubble wrap with a warning sign might just save the day.
LJ