Not sure how to start with this but I’ll give it a go
bees will respond to the environment in a wooden hive they’ll respond quicker to the suns warming effects. I suggest you mail Murray and ask his opinion and come back and share. In a nice sunny spot I find colonies build better than those in a cold shady spot inc those in poly. Bees often take advantage of this and in wooden Nucs I think it’s more common. In particularly sunny sites brood rearing often starts on the sunny wall. In double Nucs with a thin divider it’s quite common to see brood rearing start on the shared party wall. You still suggest there’s a May deadline, but now with outliers!!. There’s no beek here that will agree there’s a May deadline for swarming, and you did say deadline that’s rather specific. Lets see if any come forward. As for hives in the sun being less efficient because they’ll need water, I’ll take any loss of efficiency for a few summer days, and happily have a drier warmer hive throughout winter and spring when it actually matters. If your that worried about efficiency May I suggest 1 of jenks buggie water feeders in the front door
Now pls go back and look to see if I said poly keeps them cold.? I said wooden hives benefit from the suns warmth and respond quicker in a sunny spot! By your own admittance you’ve only had them a short while and very few again I suggest you talk to Murray. IMO once numbers in a poly start building the heat from brood and bees is retained and that’s the aid in quicker colony build up. Having had polys a while I’m more than happy to say that overall they’ll out preform wood. For me though by the time the main flow comes around big hives are big hives polys benefits then are negligible. I’ll much rather purchase poly nucs and think those offer the best return, for me at least in the sunny south. I’m sure for others in more testing conditions some benefits are more pronounced. Now onto another subject, I see you also suggesting bees in trees prefer 100mm of wood surrounding their cavity, pls correct me if wrong. Could I ask how often you find a tree large enough to have a cavity in the 10s of litres but say 12mm(average)thick walls. I’d suggest never because the many tons of tree above simply would have snapped long ago. So is it the bees selection or what mother nature’s offering them. Have you done any trials with bait hives say 50 made with 18mm ply similar to a wooden hive and 50 with 100mm walls. My bait hives made from ply some with sides as thin as 6-12mm have no issues in attracting swarms. Ian