Are we going to get a Winter?

[MartinL]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-worst-winter-for-5-years-on-the-way-with-temperatures-set-to-plummet-to-minus-11/ar-AAucodl?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartanntp

So was it a slow news-day or is there any likelihood of the long range wizards getting it anywhere near to close?????

Would be nice to see some snow that lasted long enough for Tesco to run out of obscure items like Candles or Oxtail Soup???

 

[Erichalfbee]

We had winter for a couple of hours this morning. Brrrrrrrrr
Then the sun and the bees came out.
I remember the winter of 2012/13
Nothing much happened here in the Aeron Valley...just a sprinkling of snow on one or two days.
Now 1962/3 was quite different

 

[Erichalfbee]

And then there was 2010
Now we got snow, then

 

[MartinL]

We had winter for a couple of hours this morning. Brrrrrrrrr
Then the sun and the bees came out.
I remember the winter of 2012/13
Nothing much happened here in the Aeron Valley...just a sprinkling of snow on one or two days.
Now 1962/3 was quite different

I don't remember 62-63,

No doubt some will recount 46/47,
where's Victor M?

J.B.M. ?
Millet ?

 

[Swarm]

Snowed in November in 2010 and stayed all over christmas but the following year we had far more. Nothing in 2013 but it refused to go away and Spring temps didn't arrive until May.
What about the blizzards in 1982? It snowed for three days, I remember digging my Grandmother out of her house. 1978 was quite rough.

 

[wightbees]

According to this we are in 12 years time > principal component analysis from here http://www.collective-evolution.com...ofessors-solar-cycle-model-thats-97-accurate/

Bored so I thought I would add this : )

 

[Gilberdyke John]

I don't remember 62-63,

No doubt some will recount 46/47,
where's Victor M?

J.B.M. ?
Millet ?

I was born at the end of 1946. I don't remember the rapid thaw with associated flooding in the spring of 1947 but I heard about it a number of years later

Now 1962 - 3 was a cold un. Water pipes froze under the ground and one of my aunt's went to bed with a hot water bottle one night. In the morning the bottle was still in bed but frozen.

 

[Millet]

2010 was a bad one for Northumberland, not on the coast but further inland on high ground, the Quad could not be used as the snow was 3ft deep in the fields, the worst thing about it was it snowed then froze then snowed and froze and so on so it was like a sheet of glass in between a 6in layer of snow, and it lasted for 4wks solid until it started to defrost.
Some nice icicles here..

 

[wightbees]

Hoping for snow, can get the snow board out then!

 

[Millet]

Now 1962 - 3 was a cold un. Water pipes froze under the ground and one of my aunt's went to bed with a hot water bottle one night. In the morning the bottle was still in bed but frozen.

I was still a twinkle in my dads eye back then..

 

[MartinL]

I heard about it a number of years later

We hear all about it when the crumblies get together.

So long as their hearing aid batteries are fully charged

 

[madasafish]

1963 : Banffshire 10 foot snowdrifts outside back door. Road to town over hill blocked with drifts for two months - never plowed.

1980s : Staffordshire - 3 foot snowdrifts in yard.

2011-12,-16C for a week.

2017. First frost this winter this morning.

 

[Swarm]

1963 : Banffshire 10 foot snowdrifts outside back door. Road to town over hill blocked with drifts for two months - never plowed.

1980s : Staffordshire - 3 foot snowdrifts in yard.

2011-12,-16C for a week.

2017. First frost this winter this morning.

And you bang on about how bad your weather is?
1982, in balmy South Wales, drifts over 6 feet, cars completely hidden and on one particular stretch of road, the drift formed a thick block of ice that was still there at the end of May.

 

[Erichalfbee]

In 2012 I lived in Cumbria and that winter Stan spent most of the winter out on rescues on the hills or helping the Emergency services getting folk to hospital. I didn't see him for days.

 

[user 6228]

Definitely some strong winters in North Wales in the late 70's I had to walk 4 miles one day to get to lectures, the car was snowed in and buses weren't running. But there the weather could be very local and there was no snow in the town but roads closed just 3 miles away.

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

And you bang on about how bad your weather is?
1982, in balmy South Wales, drifts over 6 feet, cars completely hidden and on one particular stretch of road, the drift formed a thick block of ice that was still there at the end of May.

Early 1981 we also had some extreme snow remember battling with my father up the mountainside to check on the horses - we gave up when a gust of wind picked a bale of hay off my father's shoulders and it disappeared in the distance. We only just made it back home before it got really bad - 1982 even worse, they were talking about it at my uncle Dai's funeral a couple of years ago, dad and I had walked to their farm (it wasn't that far) and we resembled snowmen when we got there - we tried to carry on to reach our smallholding another mile away as we had cattle out on those fields and gave up after trying to cross this massive snowdrift on a bend in the road - I caught my foot and tripped - on the top of a telegraph pole sticking out of the drift!!
Late February/Early March 1979 was pretty bad as well - valley was isolated for a week.

 

[oliver90owner]

According to this we are in 12 years time > principal component analysis-

Doubtful. I would think weather cycles more likely follow the sunspot cycle which is eleven years on average. The 'average' bit means it does vary over short time scales

 

[Vortex]

According to this we are in 12 years time > principal component analysis-

Doubtful. I would think weather cycles more likely follow the sunspot cycle which is eleven years on average. The 'average' bit means it does vary over short time scales

12 years would be correct if they're correct about the Maurnder Minimim, the last one occurring in 1645 and lasting till 1715, which is where we get our "Good King Wenceslas" postcard pictures and the Thames freezing.

Edit: Note I first heard this back in 2013. If you don't want to read the science then this blog from 2015 is a pretty good summary https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/predicting-solar-cycle-25-are-we-heading-for-another-maunder-minimum/. It also has a link to the original 2012 paper for those interested.

 

[madasafish]

12 years would be correct if they're correct about the Maurnder Minimim, the last one occurring in 1645 and lasting till 1715, which is where we get our "Good King Wenceslas" postcard pictures and the Thames freezing.

Edit: Note I first heard this back in 2013. If you don't want to read the science then this blog from 2015 is a pretty good summary https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/predicting-solar-cycle-25-are-we-heading-for-another-maunder-minimum/. It also has a link to the original 2012 paper for those interested.

Thanks

I shall now try to understand the papers you linked to. Don't hold your breath.

 

[Teemore]

My prediction is that we'll get shorter days and longer nights with corresponding increases in the numbers of bored beekeepers having "fun" on the forum, debating on the proper use of matchsticks and the suitability for over-wintering of various strains of bees! All this will be followed by increasing day length, increasing colony activity and ... beekeeping!