I sure it’s not always the case as you say after all bees will be bees and do the utmost to confuse us. I’m pretty sure I posted Spring this year regarding some early inspections. Poly Nucs had started laying later and this is consistent with many previous years. Larger hives appeared closer in time frame. However people must remember insulation will work both ways. Bees are opportunistic and will happily take advantage of the suns heat. I don’t think the articles interesting he’s just quoted the normal, I don’t think he’s checking or doing anything out the ordinary. Quoting ITLD bees in wood respond quicker to the environment!! But then are outperformed by poly. So it’s not just me that’s noticed
As to best time for treating I find the NBU often calls early, I’ve always done it Xmas holidays early Jan.