Year one Queens

[Erichalfbee]

I'd rather say will not

only if they weren’t ever going to swarm at all in the first place. I’ve had a few queens not swarm in their second year. The first couple drove me nuts and I increased my inspection rate to not be caught out. Doesn’t often happen though.

 

[mbc]

no more or less than year two or year three queens, if they are not given enough space, or sometimes even if they are, they will swarm as readily as any other.

I like to think of a queen's useful life as measured in waves, each time she builds her nest is a wave ie. a queen mated in july 21 will have built up her nest once for winter and will be in her second wave now. Each season colonies typically go through three waves, spring, summer and autumn.
My queen's (despite 2 decades of trying to select the least swarmy mothers) usually make swarm preparations in their 4th or 5th wave, or if they don't coincide with spring or summer, the next spring wave of nest building.

 

[Erichalfbee]

I like to think of a queen's useful life as measured in waves, each time she builds her nest is a wave ie. a queen mated in july 21 will have built up her nest once for winter and will be in her second wave now. Each season colonies typically go through three waves, spring, summer and autumn.
My queen's (despite 2 decades of trying to select the least swarmy mothers) usually make swarm preparations in their 4th or 5th wave, or if they don't coincide with spring or summer, the next spring wave of nest building.

I shall note what your two do in the sunny Aeron Valley

 

[pargyle]

I'd rather say will not

OK ... I was being charitable !

 

[Nige.Coll]

too many variables to answer with any accuracy.
If space etc are taken as adequate then most queens don't try and swarm in the year they are born, some don't in the next year either.
Most seem to in year 3.
This is heavily dependent on if they came from swarmy stock though, swarmy bees can't seem to go 3 months without wanting to move house.
As with most questions about bees the answer is. It depends.