Bees on the BBC website

[user 6228]

You see an increase in hive numbers, beekeepers and honey yields as a decline in honey bee numbers?
How strange.

Its just maths. if the rate of starts is greater than the rate of deaths then the population grows.
if the rate of deaths increases but the rate of starts also increases also then you may not see a population fall . But it doesnt mean you dont have a problem as you may not be able to match the increasing death rate with increasing rate of starts forever.


For mathematically inclined, the big question is whether the 2nd derivative of colony death with respect to time positive (bad news) or negative (good news)

In a race between accelerating beekeeping and accelerating deaths, being ahead just after the start does not mean beekeeping is going to win. For beekeeping to win, death has to stop accelerating before beekeeping does.
Look at it as the eventual futility trying to beat disease by having more children.

 

[Beefriendly]

For the mathematically inclined, the big question is whether the 2nd derivative of colony death with respect to time positive (bad news) or negative (good news)

What obfuscation ....Take a simple assumption that more hives equates to more colonies of bees. Any increase in hive numbers is not a decline in honey bees.

 

[user 6228]

What obfuscation ....Take a simple assumption that more hives equates to more colonies of bees. Any increase in hive numbers is not a decline in honey bees.

So you dont know the difference between distance, velocity and acceleration then?

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

So you dont know the difference between distance, velocity and acceleration then?

Only an ***** would strap a rocket to a beehive.

 

[Beefriendly]

So you dont know the difference between distance, velocity and acceleration then?

Derek you reply reads like a load of rubbish. Rather than demonstrate your (apparent) intellectual superiority ...why don't you explain what you mean?
I'll give an example...say Talisker take on 10 new employees...does this mean whiskey sales are in recession?

 

[user 6228]

Derek you reply reads like a load of rubbish. Rather than demonstrate your (apparent) intellectual superiority ...why don't you explain what you mean?

Your replies read like baiting.

 

[Beefriendly]

And you still fail to explain your reasoning why you think, despite the facts that we are producing more honey per annum, there are more more beehives and more beekeepers means there is a decline in honey bee numbers?

 

[For want of a better word]

And you still fail to explain your reasoning why you think, despite the facts that we are producing more honey per annum, there are more more beehives and more beekeepers means there is a decline in honey bee numbers?

Derek M is possibly referring to this...... BASIC ECOLOGY

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ecology-In...Michael-Begon/dp/1405111178#reader_1405111178

Yeghes da

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

And you still fail to explain your reasoning why you think, despite the facts that we are producing more honey per annum, there are more more beehives and more beekeepers means there is a decline in honey bee numbers?

Maybe beehives are getting smaller thus have fewer bees in?

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

Or maybe they are now just solid slabs of celotex to satisfy thermal efficiency obsessives so do not contain bees at all?

 

[For want of a better word]

Or maybe they are now just solid slabs of celotex to satisfy thermal efficiency obsessives so do not contain bees at all?

ok jENKSIE... verry funny!

Chons da

 

[user 6228]

Or maybe they are now just solid slabs of celotex to satisfy thermal efficiency obsessives so do not contain bees at all?

That would be rather convenient wouldn't it
Then i would not have to explain to biologists that I don't have do/redo an experiment to prove that animals are constrained by physics.

 

[jenkinsbrynmair]

Maybe you need to listen to biologists and beekeepers for a change.

 

[Lancs Lad]

Well this is one beekeeper that listened to what Derekm had to say. This time last year I built a highly insulated polystyrene hive with a 50mm polystyrene roof and a 50 mm polystyrene floor with an underfloor entrance. It is over 40 years since I started beekeeping and in that time nothing has astounded me more than this hive, it has outperformed any hive that I have ever owned. I realise that one hive in one year can be exceptional so I have built another three for next year to trial it more fully. The only recommendation I can give at this point is try his principles before you knock them.
Nobody ever ploughed a field by thinking about it.

 

[Beefriendly]

Many of us have been recommending poly insulated hives over wooden hives for many moons, not just Derek. You make it sound as though he is fighting a lone battle....
What is patently obvious though is the DM is not an experienced beekeeper and he needs to take this relative inexperience more into account with some of his more tenuous assumptions on insulation and it's benefits. It's not all good news having high levels of insulation, particularly when you have added bees.

Plus we are still waiting for a reasonable explanation from Derek as to why more honey, more hives and more beekeepers than 20 years ago (or so) means less honey bees, as he has asserted.

 

[B+.]

What is patently obvious though is the DM is not an experienced beekeeper and he needs to take this relative inexperience more into account with some of his more tenuous assumptions on insulation and it's benefits. It's not all good news having high levels of insulation, particularly when you have added bees.

I think we all look at Dereks work from our own perspective. I respect his work on heat transfer but find their application to this field troubling. On the face of it, it seems like providing a warm, sheltered area for bees to overwinter would be desirable. Well, yes AND no IMHO. If you provide perfect overwintering conditions more colonies will survive and go on to reproduce. As a breeder, the concern I have is that even the most unhealthy colonies (colonies that would otherwise die) have the opportunity to reproduce. Their progeny would be unfit, as would theirs....and so on. Derek isn't concerned with these as they don't fit within his paradigm. It does concern me though.

 

[Beefriendly]

Unless you are planning "catch and release"...why would survival outside of modern hives be of any concern?

 

[B+.]

Unless you are planning "catch and release"...why would survival outside of modern hives be of any concern?

I always thought that was a pointless exercise but some people like the "sport".

 

[user 6228]

Many of us have been recommending poly insulated hives over wooden hives for many moons, not just Derek. You make it sound as though he is fighting a lone battle....
What is patently obvious though is the DM is not an experienced beekeeper and he needs to take this relative inexperience more into account with some of his more tenuous assumptions on insulation and it's benefits. It's not all good news having high levels of insulation, particularly when you have added bees.

Plus we are still waiting for a reasonable explanation from Derek as to why more honey, more hives and more beekeepers than 20 years ago (or so) means less honey bees, as he has asserted.

NO my assertion was that current number of hives does not prove that honeybees are succeeding. Not if we are the ones propping the population up.
take this example take 100 colonies

5 fail and 5 new colony starts by beeks. The number of colonies stays the same
then next year
30 fail and 30 new starts the population stays static again
then next year
50 fail and 75 new starts then population grows.

Is everything the garden lovely with colonies failing at 50%? - the colony population is growing but only because beeks are putting in the effort

At the end the failure rate is 10 times greater yet the number of colonies is increasing.
The underlying cause of the increased failure is masked by the total population size.

If the beeks have a problem matching the 50 fails and dont fix the underlying problem then you get population collapse.

 

[For want of a better word]

NO my assertion was that current number of hives does not prove that honeybees are succeeding. Not if we are the ones propping the population up.
take this example take 100 colonies

5 fail and 5 new colony starts by beeks. The number of colonies stays the same
then next year
30 fail and 30 new starts the population stays static again
then next year
50 fail and 75 new starts then population grows.

Is everything the garden lovely with colonies failing at 50%? - the colony population is growing but only because beeks are putting in the effort

At the end the failure rate is 10 times greater yet the number of colonies is increasing.
The underlying cause of the increased failure is masked by the total population size.

If the beeks have a problem matching the 50 fails and dont fix the underlying problem then you get population collapse.

Bad beekeeping practice + colony losses = more need of importation of exotic species

Good beekeeping practice + colony successes = No need of importation of exotic species

... there must be a forumla for that!